The use of fuzzy logic to determine the intensity parameter in the risk analysis for risk of abnormal events in studies of passive defense

In this paper، a military attack abnormal risk is one of the events being investigated، so that first study، several possible military scenarios against Iran، designed and modeled، using fuzzy logic and linguistic variables polled experts، the intensity of each of the scenarios، to be quantified. During the review and studies، it was found that at the time of writing this article، 5 military scenario against Iran is likely، that each of them is fully defined and modeled in this study and the results of the survey to determine intensity phase method، alternative 5، the use of weapons of mass destruction، the highest intensity (S = 0. 917) and (2) the scenario is very limited attack on the nuclear annihilation of the lowest intensity (S = 0. 046) to be allocated.