Forecasting of Polyethylene Terephthalate chain Price, Using System Based on Neural Networks
Message:
Abstract:
The lack of a structured anticipating about high usage product of the national petrochemical company، has forced this company to buy forecasted price from foreign countries. Prevent the outflow of foreign exchange and tolerance of political factors such as sanctions in this field requires a forecast of prices in our country. Due to the chain-like nature of the petrochemical products، and the absence of precise knowledge of the effects of many factors affecting the price، researchers are forced to solve problems with high complexity and high grade equations. Selecting the number and the type of input variables of neural network is a significant impact on the performance of system، so، fundamental analysis، relying on the theory of supply and demand and macroeconomic perspective، and Delphi statistical method are used to select the most influential factor is the price of petroleum products. First، the overall topology of the neural network is designed، using the controlled variables، then، considering the independent variables، the optimal network selected. After creating the user interface، communication of system with optimal neural network was established. To evaluating، the actual price of the considered product in reference year، compared with the prices predicted by the proposed system and purchased predicted prices from CMAI; and the results proved the acceptable effectiveness of the proposed system with less than 3% error in predicting of considered chain. Providing this system can make petrochemical companies independent from buying forecasted prices from foreign companies and can force from exiting the currency from country.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Researches of Management Organizational Resources, Volume:5 Issue: 2, 2015
Pages:
1 to 20
magiran.com/p1438756  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 990,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
دسترسی سراسری کاربران دانشگاه پیام نور!
اعضای هیئت علمی و دانشجویان دانشگاه پیام نور در سراسر کشور، در صورت ثبت نام با ایمیل دانشگاهی، تا پایان فروردین ماه 1403 به مقالات سایت دسترسی خواهند داشت!
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 50 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!