Determine the optimal cropping pattern of Esfarayen county (Application of interval-valued fuzzy programming based on infinite alpha-cuts)

Due to the special nature of agricultural activities and results of decisions influenced by the risk and uncertainty of these activities, consideration risk is essential in planning for agriculture sector. Interval-valued fuzzy programming approach is advantage of in this study for considering the conditions of uncertainty and additionally emphasizing on the limitation of water resources in defining the optimal crop pattern. The required data was gathered via 128 questionnaire and interviews with the farmers of Esfarayen county as simple random sampling in 2012-2013. The results show that Forage maize, Red beans and wheat in the most case scenarios are economical as well as optimal crops for cultivation, and the profit of the optimul model increases with reduction the uncertainty in water resources. Also, the level of water consumption in current cropping patterns is more than the amount of water consumption in the optimal cropping pattern. Therefore, presentation of supportive policies such asenhancement of insurance coverage for crops or the guaranteed price for crops, cultivationof the recommended optimal crops are suggested to develop. In addition, the increase inprofitability of the farmers from too much usage of underground aquifers is stopped aswell.