Impact of Nomadic Communities on Habitat Suitability of Wild Goat (Capraaegagrus aegagrus) in Lar National Park

Lar national park is one of the best habitats for Wild Goat in the central Alborz Mountains, with a population of around 600 heads. There are about 289 nomadic families, spending one hundred days of the year (from late June until late August) in this area. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of this nomadic tribes and their cattle on habitat suitability of Wild Goat, before and after of their presence in the area, in spring and summer of 2010. In order to model habitat suitability for this species, a presence only layer was used as input to Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) method in Biomapper software. Ecogeographic factors were also used as independent variables elevation, slope, aspect, geomorphological features, main roads, predators which consist of wolf and panther, presence point of nomadic tribes. Our results revealed that about twenty percent of the most suitable habitats will be lost, after nomads’ arrival to the area. Furthermore, the marginality index of the species will be increased; meaning that the population is pushed to marginal habitats and the species occupies narrow niche. These results emphasize the importance of regulation of grazing systems, as well as determining prohibited core zone within the national park, where grazing will be strictly forbidden during spring and summer.