Urban growth modeling of Maraghe city by using of logistic regression

Population growth and urban expansion in the last decade in Maraghe city, changed the land cover / land use in the surrounding area. As an area of city has been reached of 350 hectares in 1353 to about 1,799 hectares in 1390. Understanding the factors affecting urban growth modeling and their impact on urban management and planning are essential to professionalism. Factors influencing can be divided into two categories of the biophysical and socio-economic variables. According to the logistic regression model capabilities to identify the impact and amount of effects of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in the growth of the city, from the model has been used for analyzing of driving forces and predicting of future urban growth at 22 year. The Pseudo R-square and the ROC for this model were obtained 0.2764 and 0.8537 due to are in the acceptable ranges. For the calibration of modeling have been used from ROC method. Namely, to the number of independent variable, modeling performed without of a variable in every of modeling and the ROC rates exploited. The result indicates that variable of distance from urban lands has the most effects in urban growth and subsequent variables are the elevation, distance from industrial land-uses, distance from agricultural lands and distance from roads.