Economic Analysis of the Effects of Inter-Basin Water Transfer on Land Use and Farmer's Income Situation in the Origin Basin (Case Study: Water Transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin Plain)

Water transfer project from branches of Alamoutrood that to provide agricultural water resources of Qazvin plain (destination basin) is in the process of planning and implementation, can numerous economic consequences in the Alamut region (origin basin) to be followed. Therefore, in this study the effects of above inter-basin water transfer on the land use (cropping pattern), farmer's incoming condition (gross profit of cropping pattern) and the economic value of water in the origin basin were analysed. To achieve this goal, from a modeling system consists of the Positive Mathematical Programming and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution was used. The required data are related to the year 2013-2014 that by referring to the relevant agencies in Qazvin province were collected. The results showed that inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain with restrict 10 to 40 percent the supply of irrigation water leads to reduction of cropping pattern from 1/71 to 5/52 and 2/17 to 6/32 percent, reduction of farmers’ gross profit from 2/58 to 8/21 and 3/18 to 9/82 percent and increase of economic value of irrigation water from 3/23 to 31/1 and 4/09 to 14/0 percent in Eastern and Western Alamut regions. Also, increasing in the rural people emigration, urbanization development, reducing in the tourism and disturbance in the ecosystem origin basin are the potential consequences of inter-basin water transfer of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain. Finally, according to the obtained results implementation of inter-basin water transfer project from branches of Alamoutrood to Qazvin plain by considering of economic, social and environmental considerations in the origin basin was recommended.