An Analysis of Urban Land Use Changes in Tabriz using Land Transformation Model

Urban sprawl and land use changes are one of the fundamental challenges facing urban planning in recent years. Therefore, modeling these changes is considered as an important tool by planners, economists, ecologists and environmentalists. This paper is an attempt to apply the Land Transformation Model (LTM) for urban land use changes in Tabriz based on artificial neural network and a geographical information system for the in prediction of Tabriz future development. Methodology in this paper is descriptive-analytic and the data are produced from satellite images, urban land use maps and approved plans for Tabriz. For preparation of data and analysis, ERDAS imaging and ArcGIS software, and for training test, simulation and the probable prediction map, LTM software are used. Results in training process, from 1989 to 2005 shows that 21469 cells (50*50 m) were expanded in 16 years period which is according to the real developed area in the same period and this result shows optimum training network. For prediction of probability map, we used Tabriz population and land use per capita was estimated in regional plan of Tabriz, and results illustrate 22484 cells changing until 2021 for future development. The results of the model, have predicted the most developed areas in the northwestern, east and south-east aspects and continuing this process would destroy green spaces, agricultural lands surrounding the city and threaten the environment. Thus, with this expansion, 8437 ha of green spaces and periphery areas will go on the built area. Continued sprawl development not only will destroy urban environment in periphery areas, but it also will disrupt spaces in Tabriz and there by will increase urban development costs such as infrastructure services.