Investigating The Probabilistic Warning Times for Tabriz Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS)

The economic and social vulnerability of urban areas to seismic risk because of the heavy tolls caused by earthquake, economic and social vulnerability of urban areas is very noticeable. Since it is not possible to accurately predict the earthquake occurrence with our current knowledge, then an Earthquake Early Warning System can significantly reducethe possible death and financial losses. This study attempts to investigate the level of implementing of Tabriz Earthquake Early Warning System on the north fault of Tabriz in the north west of Iran by using the Probability Cumulative Distribution Function.
By using CDF (Probability Cumulative Distribution Function), this study aims to investigate the level of implementing of an Earthquake Early Warning System that is located on North Tabriz Fault, study the earthquake simulation with random method by using earthquake scenarios and input parameters of appropriate simulation code and calculate the maximum acceleration of ground motion by using software code of EXSIM for all north west cities of Iran. Then the warning times in Tabriz were calculated in TAUP space and by using ArcGIS software the intensity map of the area was drawn.
The results of this study show that it is not possible to establish considerable On-Site warning for Tabriz. It seems that this amount of time to set up Earthquake Early Warning Systems in Tabriz is under 10 seconds that due to the arrangement of existing stations it would not be cost-effective.