Geopolitical Explanation of strategic products of food in Iran, Case study: wheat
Agriculture and food security have always been one of the main human concerns, even though Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. It is a fact that wheat is one of the most important strategic products in Iran. Therefore, this study investigates the most influential countries on wheat around the world as an exporter or importer. Furthermore, the production and consumption of this item in Iran until 2021 and the rank of Iran in the trade of wheat will be studied. In addition, what kind of geopolitical strategies could be more productive for Iranian government to steps forward its food security in wheat?
The method of research in this scientific paper is definitely descriptive and analytical that our data have been collected from reliable sources such as: Food and Agriculture Organization. It should be mentioned as well that the collecting data have been analyzed deductively and qualitatively. The software of Excel and GIS are used for surveying data and ARIMA model is used to forecast the amount of production and consumption of wheat in Iran from 2012 to 2021. The Analytic hierarchy process method (AHP) is used for identifying the most suitable countries for importing wheat to Iran.
Indeed, all of this data will be tabulated and diagramed respectively that can be generalized in scientific literature.
Result and
Based on the average data from 1992 to 2011 from FAO, Iran has had the ranks of fifteenth, thirteenth, fifteenth and forty-fifth respectively in production, consumption, import and export of wheat. Also, the rank of Iran in wheat producing with 1.8 (tons/hectares) is thirty-second among the all countries. The results of the ARIMA model shows that Iran would be a small importer of wheat till 2021 at least. Based on the results, the most important exporters of wheat from 1992 to 2011 have been: USA, Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Russia, Germany, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and England respectively. Hence, according to the results of Analytic hierarchy process and five factors including Political stability, Transportation advantages, Stability in the production and export, Economic relations with Iran and Political relations with Iran and their variables, the best countries for importing of wheat to Iran are respectively Russia, Kazakhstan, Germany, France, Ukraine, England, Argentina, USA, Australia, and Canada.
According to the findings and vast changes in the global food situation, instability between demand and supply Food patterns, we will be witnessing a new era of relations between food exporting and importing countries. Undoubtedly, food as one of the tools of power in the modern age is rapidly becoming one of the main geopolitical issues, and certainly geopolitics is able to provide a scientific framework for food studies and bring beneficial results.
Human Geography Research Quarterly, Volume:48 Issue: 95, 2016
53 - 67  
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