Modeling and Risk Mapping of Forest Fires using Remote Sensing and GIS (Case Study: Baghe-Shadi Protected Area, Yazd Province)

Baghe-shadi in Yazd province is one the forests which is reported to be an area with high rate fire occurrence. The aim of this study was to model and map the fire risk area using geographic information system and remote sensing. In this study Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with human related factors (distance from road, distance from settlements, and distance from vegetation), climatic related factors (air temperature and rainfall), and physiographic related factors (elevation, slope, aspect) were selected. Vegetation cover was estimated using Landsat OLI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Weights were determined from specialists through questionnaire. Weight of each factor, elevation, slope and aspect, temperature, precipitation, distance from roads, distance from settlements and vegetation cover was achieved through multiple criteria decision making model, then areas with five susceptible classes were determined using GIS. Results showed that vegetation related factor and human related factor with weights of 0.569 and 0.204 are the most important factors respectively. In order to assess the accuracy of developed model, fire susceptibility map of was compared with the previously fired area. Result of comparison showed very high and high risk areas are corresponding to the controls area. Receiver operating charasteristic (ROC) test confirmed the high level (0.88) of accuracy of presented model.