Formulating a Robust Strategy Using Scenario Programming with a Fuzzy Logic Approach

Future is less predictable, but the remarkable point is that organizations can prepare themselves to encounter it which will result in the creation of competitive advantage for them. In order to develop in the insecure environment, organizations should leave their one-dimensional view toward the future, and consider the probable events in the future in their planning, using a multi-dimensional viewpoint. The methodology that is introduced in this article is a modern one because it combines the general method of formulating strategies with the two common tools that are used in order to fight uncertainty, namely, scenario planning and fuzzy logic. Using the uncertain elements that exist in the environment, this method embarks on designing possible scenarios facing the organization, and with the help of the fuzzy information supplied by the experts, it sets to select the most robust strategy of the organization in the fuzzy inference system. This strategy is selected in such a way that under all possible conditions of the occurrence of scenarios, it is justifiable and not necessarily the optimal choice; and enjoys the best possible performance from among all the scenarios that are specified for the future. In this paper, we compare the common method of strategy formulation with the formulation of strategy through the robust methodology, then, we examine the results obtained from implementation of both methods in a case study in a real organization.