Modeling the earthquake cycle of the North Tabriz fault by using GPS data

Determination of inter-seismic deformations such as fault slip-rate can usually be achieved by using geodetic observations, earthquake geology and paleo-seismology, as well as mechanical, empirical and numerical modeling. In these models, combination of the fault seismic parameters and the GPS data can help estimate the fault slip-rate, the elastic thickness of the lithosphere, the earthquakes recurrence time, the relaxation time of the asthenosphere, the elapsed time of earthquake and the locking depth of the fault. In this study, we utilize the geodetic data of the North Tabriz Fault (NTF) by using random Bootstrap sampling and conducting numerical modeling by code writing in the R and MATLAB softwares. In this concern, the fault slip-rate and elastic layer thickness are estimated to be ~4-6.5±1 mm/yr and ~5-25 km, respectively, for the NW segment of the NTF. Similarly, model results for the SE segment of the fault indicate a slip-rate of ~3.5-5.5±1 mm/yr and elastic layer thickness of ~8-16 km. For the NW segment of the NTF, the asthenosphere relaxation time, earthquake recurrence time and elapsed time are estimated to be ~160-185 years, ~650-950 years and ~200-1400 years, respectively. Model results for the SE segments of the NTF indicate an asthenosphere relaxation time of ~220-340 years, an earthquake recurrence time of ~750-1050 years and an elapsed time of ~200-1500 years, respectively. The results are well consistent with the other paleoseismological and geological results.