Vulnerability Analysis of Water Resources Systems to Water Scarcity Based on a Water Accounting Framework (Case Study: Rafsanjan Study Area)

Policy making in Integrated Water Resources Management relies on understanding the concept of vulnerability. Therefore, it will be essential to identify the socio-economic state of the system under study as well as its hydrological state. In this paper, a water accounting framework is adopted to make a basis for integrated water resources management to embrace socio-economic aspects as well as the hydrological feature. The water accounting framework will be capable of integrating different data from economic, hydrological, and social domains. It is also suitable to address the effects of different policies. The aim of the present paper is to analyze vulnerability of the water resource system in the Rafsanjan study area. Adopting an analytical framework for assessing the system vulnerability to water scarcity, the paper then presented a derivation of vulnerability indicators based on the data organized in terms of different water accounts for 2001 and 2006. Analyzing the trends of indicators, the paper suggested policy options which could be applied in those periods to reduce the system vulnerability. The policy options are then simulated in a system dynamics model (using the VENSIM PLE software) built in association of the water resource and economic sub-systems of the study area. The results showed that the water resource system of the study area is highly vulnerable to water scarcity. To alleviate the system vulnerability, the policy options are suggested to shift partly from agricultural activities to industrial and mining activities.