Spatio-Temporal Water Levels Forecasting by Time Series-Geostatistics as a Hybrid Model in Hashtgerd Plain-Alborz Province

To procure the status of groundwater level fluctuations in arid and semi-arid areas, it is necessary to obtain accurate forecast of fluctuations data. Time series as a linear model have been utilized to generate synthetic data and predict future groundwater level. Minitab17 software and monthly depth of groundwater level data of 20 years (1991-2011) for 25 piezometric wells of plain were used. Time series models of each well were selected and 5 years temporal forecasting was accomplished. The predicted depth of groundwater level data was converted to Groundwater level data using ARCGIS10 and GS.1.1 software. Ordinary kriging with a spherical variogram was selected for interpolation of groundwater level. Five years spatial forecasting was done and spatial forecasting and groundwater level drop forecasting maps were prepared. Forecasting results of groundwater level show that over the next 5 years, the area covered by two intervals of groundwater level, 1100-1140 m and 1140-1180 m, will increase and the area covered by three ranges of 1180 -1220 m, 1220-1260 m, and 1260-1300 m, will decline. Also, according to the 5-year groundwater level drop forecasting map of the plain, the highest level of groundwater level drop, more than 16 meters for Qasemabad bozorg areas, located in North East and central of the plain, and the lowest level of the groundwater level drop, about 0.5 m for Mohammad Abad Afkham Aldoleh Lands, located in outlet area of the plain, have been predicted.