Analysis of the Behavior and Frequency Changes of Heat Waves Event in Ahwaz City
Abstract:
The purpose of this study was to investigate the heat wave's Ahvaz city. In this study, the daily maximum temperature of Ahwaz Station data from 01.01.1340 to 29.12.1386 (17,166 days) was used to analyze the heat waves. First, based on a standardized data matrix and by using Fumiyaki index, deviation matrix of normalized temperature at Ahwaz was prepared. For identifying heat waves , by using computer programming in Matlab Software the heat waves was defined as the days with a continues heat of at least 3 days and its temperature is of standard deviation or more than average. So, the 87 waves of 3 - 14 days were identified and classified. Finally, the continuation of heat wave in Ahwaz according to the laws of probability in the form of random processes and by using Markov chain techniques was analyzed. The results in this research showed that short-term heat wave events are more frequent, the long heat wave has least events. The heat waves are more frequent at the beginning of winter and at the beginning of the fall. Besides, the highest continuation is related to winter. Average number of heat waves days in Ahwaz was 9 days, the highest number of days with a 38-day heat wave observed in 1377. The results of the transition probability matrix based on the maximum likelihood method, showed that winter heat wave is most likely to occur. The results also showed that winter and summer, respectively, have the shortest and longest return period.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Geographical Planning of Space Quarterly Journal, Volume:6 Issue: 19, 2016
Pages:
137 to 150
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