Estimation of wood price of forest species in Guilan province using time series analysis

The aim of this study is to determine the wood price fluctuations and wood price prediction of planted species in Guilan province from 1993-2013 year. Therefore, Data such as wood price of ash (Fraxinus excelsior), elm (Alnus glutinosa), maple (Acer velutinum), oak (Quercus castanifolia), pine (Pinus taeda) and variable harvesting costs were collected from General Office of Natural Resources in Guilan province for a period of 20 years. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was used for deflation of stumpage price (wood price minus variable harvesting cost) data. Regression analysis was used to predict the stumpage price of different species. The results of regression showed that the wood price has been fluctuating during this period.The results showed that the mean price process for stumpage of ash, maple, oak, pine and elm are 235.960, 242.803, 168.994, 135.909, 218.95 (10 thousands Iranian Rials/ m3), respectively. This study showed that the estimation of wood price of forest species is possible using time series in the study area.