Investigation of Precipitation Sufficiency at Different Phenological Stages of Rainfed Cereals in the Agricultural Lands of Gorgan County by Classic and Geostatistical Interpolation Methods
Abstract:
Precipitation is one of the most important climatic factors with high variations in time and space. Determination of the amount of precipitation in different regions is very important in development and management of agricultural lands especially in rainfed farming. In this research, in order to estimate and provide maps of the variation of annual, seasonal (spring and autumn) and monthly (November, May, December and June) precipitations in the agricultural lands of Gorgan county, different interpolation methods such as Kriging, inverse distance weighting (IDW), radial basis functions (RBE) and local polynomial interpolation (LPI) were used. The performance criteria for evaluation of these methods were Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that, based on the minimum of these indices, local polynomial interpolation was the best method to estimate the annual, spring, November, May and autumn precipitations. In estimation of December and June precipitations, Gaussian (Kriging) and multi-quadric (RBF) presented the most accurate results, respectively. Also, the inverse distance weighting (IDW) was found to be the worst method, with the highest error statistically. The produced maps in Gorgan county showed that most rainfall variables were in high suitable condition for rainfed farming of cereals, and these values were increased from north to south. In general, 53.75 and 27.77 percent of the studied areas were suitable and less-suitable for these crops according to June and spring rainfall maps in the central and north lands of the county, respectively.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Water and Soil Science, Volume:26 Issue: 3, 2016
Pages:
249 to 263
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