Factors affecting urban growth with an emphasis on land use changes Using a logistic regression model (case study: Tabriz)

Management and planning for urban growth and reduce the adverse effects of changes in land use and urban growth factors is necessary. In the present study logistic regression model, as a high capacity data-driven model has many variables involved To analyze the development of the city and the relationship between urban growth patterns and the factors driving it is being used . This research is descriptive analytic functional purpose. In this study, using the classification of satellite images over a 22 year period (1989-2011) Using maximum likelihood method changes cover/land Tabriz and surrounding lands were discovered and analyzed. The 14 independent variables and the dependent variable factors driving urban growth or urban development has taken place over the last 22 years were tested . The modeling was done for the period 2011 and 2033. Using data from 1368 to 2011 was modeled urban growth Consistent output over the map in 2011 with the actual land use map of 1390 confirmed the accuracy of the modeling contract. Finally, growth in 2033 was modeled to show results The possibility of development in the South East or North West of Tehran road (towards Marand and Bazargan border) and South West (towards Azarshahr) is the more than. To validate the modeling and understanding the factors that influence urban growth ROC method was used The results of the effects of the distance from the gardens and urban land And then factors in the development of arid lands and gardens is over 22 years.