Determination effective climate factors on long -term fluctuations Parishan Lake level in Fars Province and prediction water level

In Iran, with semi-arid climate conditions, optimum use of limited water resources has particular importance. Conducting research projects in area of water resources, especially in recent decades, due to encounter of human habitats to climate change and drought phenomena is essential. In this study the influence of climate factors on fluctuations of Parishan Lake water level during 1973-2009, was conducted using statistical models. Projection of climate factors for the next three decades also was done by the ARMA (1, 1) model using the SAMS software. Finally, by regression models projected parameters were used to simulate Parishan Lake water level for the next three decades and determining the best model. Findings suggest that the effective climate factors influencing Lake’s water level fluctuations consist of precipitation, evaporation and temperature. These findings reveal that Lake’s water level fluctuations are mostly governed by natural climate variations, hydrological cycle and drought return periods. These models showed that lake’s water level fluctuations exist in the future and the projected data predicted increase of lake’s water reservoir and water level for upcoming years.ý