Develop an Ecotourism Management Plan in Gavkhooni Region Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Gavkhooni Region is one of the most attractive recreational regions in Iran. It has several tourism attractions such as wetland, Shakhkenar dam, various wildlife species and migrant birds, sand dunes, historical monuments, special native culture and so on. These characteristics have potential to provide many recreational opportunities for tourists. Unfortunately poor management caused many destruction in this region, hence a comprehensive management plan is highly essential. This study aimed to offer applicable management strategies for improving overall ecotourism statues in the region. This regional planning developed with regard to the region strengths and weaknesses. The most influential parameters on ecotourism status were identified using literature review, recurrent field observations and interviews with experts. These parameters were categorised in three main groups including tourism attractions, socio-economic status and services. In the next step, an ecotourism management model was developed using Bayesian Belief Networks and entered to Netica software. The influence diagram used in this modelling approach indicated how parameters are related and affect Gavkhooni ecotourism status. According to sensitivity analysis results, tourism attractions was identified as the most important factor in tourism status of Gavkhooni region. Also some guidelines for improvement of Gavkhooni ecotourism status were offered accordingly.