Assessment of management alternatives for maintaining watershed sustainability in the climate scenarios

In this study, changes in temperature and precipitation in the two periods 2020-2039 and 2040-2059 with the composition of the weighted average of the output of seven climate model is calculated under the three emission scenarios. Then, discharge in to the Jamishan dam in effect of climate change is predicted in IHACRES daily model. Based on the results of the simulation scenarios of status quo and climate scenarios, in the WEAP model, applicable management alternatives to the region in each scenario was simulated again. In this regard, maintaining the sustainability of the basin, social, economic and environmental criteria are considered and assess to each criterion number of indicators was calculated. In order to prevent personal opinion on the preferred alternative numerical objective weighting methods are used for them. Finally three-dimensional matrix, scenario- alternative- index is solved by Multi-criteria decision making methods. In overall, the results of climate change show that the annual precipitation and temperature are decreased and increased respectively. The results of multi- criteria decision making shows that in S1 scenario the 6 and 2 alternatives, respectively are the best. In the period of 2020-2039, under all three scenarios, alternative 4 and 6 are the best and in the period of 2040-2059, in the A1B and A2, alternative 4 and 2 and in the scenario B1 alternative 4 and 6 are the best.