Deriving Fatal and Non - Fatal Road Traffic Injury Cost by Willingness to Pay Method using Bayesian Analysis

To allocate resources at the national level and ensure the safety level of roads, cost calculation can help determine the size of the problem and demonstrate the economic benefits resulting from preventing such injuries. In the current study, the cost of road traffic injury fatalities and non- fatalities was estimated by willingness to pay method using Bayesian analysis. In a cross sectional study fatal and non- fatal injuries cost was estimated. Totally 782 road users were randomly selected and investigated. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for WTP method( Contingent value(CV), stated preference(SP), revealved preference (RP) model) considering perceived risks, especially in Iran, and its validity and reliability was determined. The research questionnaire was collected along with four scenarios for passengers, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Mean age of the subjects was 33.4±9.9 years old. Men and women constituted 89.3% and 10.7% of the studied population. 47.2% of these people had an accident record themselves and 51.4% had an accident record in their families. In sum, fatal and non- fata injury cost was 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074$. Willingness to pay demonstrated an increase in risk reduction at the age of 35 and 55 years old. Findings obtained from Bayesian model showed that willingness to pay had a significant relationship with age, medium and high monthly income, logarithm trip mileage, daily payment for reducing mortality risk, payment for time reduction, , bus, minibuses and car drivers and occupants. GNI of road traffic injuries in Iran is higher than the global average. It seems that the measures for reducing traffic injuries in Iran have not been sufficient, the result of which has been the existing traffic injuries volume in the country.