Explanatory, geopolitical model of Iran and Pakistan relations

Knowing surrounding environment and geopolitical analysis of neighbor countries are from the most important factors that to set and spread bilateral relations, they should be taken. Seems Pakistan in spite of 987 km of joint border with Iran, is a threatening and stressful entity. Therefore; the clearest sources of stress and threat of Iranian - Pakistani relations include cases like: government – based threats from ISI, shia – fighting in frame of ideological problems, consequences due to insecurity of borders, support of Taliban in Afghanistan and extreme support of Pakistan from Saudi Arabia. Other than it, there are subject that at present, are not taken into account as a serious stress. But they are able to affect relations of both countries in close future. cases such as uncontrolled nuclear program of this country in spite of various group of fundamentalist and extremist, border stress ( water borders ) like marine border of Gwadar and rights to water of border rivers whose regime were not determined, negative competition of both countries in central Asia are from these classes of subjects.
This research is taken into account as descriptive - analytical based on nature and method. Required information has been gathered in document method and by referring to valid sources like books, papers and documentary reports.
3.1. The most important challenges of domestic environment of Pakistan:1-1.army: largest and strongest and the most effective establishment of power in Pakistan is army of this country
1.2. Political parties: political parties are taken into account from important centers of power in Pakistan.
1.3. Islamist organizations and groups: Pakistani Islamic groups are divided into both categories, formal and informal. “Jamaat-e-Islami ” and “ Jamiat ulama-e-Islami ”, “Jamiat Ahl-e-Hadith” , and “Tehrik-e-Jafaria of Pakistan ” are formal groups, jihad and pugnacious groups such as “Harkat ul-Mujahedeen (HUM), Lashkar-e-Toiba (LT) , Jaushe - Mohammad (J M), Mojahdin -e- Badr(MB), in confrontation with India and groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ) and Sepah - Sahabeh (SS) are from category of informal group.
1.4 economical problems: close to 24 % of 176 – million population of Pakistan live under line of poverty.
1.5. damages due to natural events: for example, on effect of a flood that occurred in 2010 , in addition to many destructions , inflation reached from 9 / 2 % to 11 / 2 % and Gross Domestic Production with a reduction process , reached from 4 / 1 to 3 / 2 .
3.2. Main sources of stress and threat in Iranian – Pakistani relations:2.1.government - based threats: one of important aspects of threat from Pakistan is wide support of army and ISI of this country for radicalism and extreme groups in the region, contact with neighbors like India , Iran and Afghanistan .
2.2. religious extremism and ideological stresses: most of anti - shia fundamentalist and extremist groups in Pakistan that are affected by thoughts of deobandi school ( sub continental ) and Wahhabism( Arabian ), have ever taken many actions against shias and Iran .
2.3. border challenges ( soil borders ): probably tending to informal exchanges, drug traffic, human traffic and illegal traffics of Pakistani and Afghani citizens, fuel and goods traffic , activities of terroristic groups and the wicked are from border challenges of Iran and Pakistan.
2.4. challenge of water borders ( marine border of Gwadar): some of capabilities of border rivers like water withdrawal of both parties from these rivers in spite of problems of water in future may provide source of stress and dispute of Iran and Pakistan in local and regional scale in both sides of border.
2.5. Nuclear threats: Christenson and Norris believe that Pakistan in 2009 has had 70 to 90 nuclear warheads that this rate in 2011 has reached to 90 to 110. Main concern for Iran relates to extreme and unsafe environment of Pakistan and danger of probable achievement of dangerous groups and regimes to this technology.
2.6. Variable of central Asia: although Pakistan and countries of central Asia emphasize economical dimension of mutual relations, this country in central Asia mostly pursue its special ideological goals. Communication of some of Pakistani extreme groups with movements and groups of central Asia like Hizb al-Nusrat , Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Hizb ut-Tahrir-e-Islami can be a threat for Iran.
2.7. Variable of Saudi Arabia: threat aspect of wide relations of Pakistan and Arabia for Iran is for this reason that Arabia has most portions in equipment, organization and reinforcement of Pakistani extremist groups. Informal statistics indicates that there are about 20000 religious schools in Pakistan that 1, 549, 244 students are studying in these schools. Saudi Arabia undertakes most portions in equipment of these schools.
2.8. Variable of Afghanistan: support of Pakistani government and social forces from Taliban is one of basic threats for Iran from Pakistan. Also, cultivation and transit of drug and competition of both countries in Afghanistan to more influence in central Asia are taken into account as other important challenges of Iran in confrontation with Pakistan in scene of changes of Afghanistan.
existence of 987 km of joint border of Iran with Pakistan in light of convergent tribal background with Pakistan ( Balochis ) , facilitates activity of opposed and dissentient groups with Iranian regime more . As terroristic and opposed groups are completely affected by thoughts of Wahhabism, The same heterogeneities and inharmonies have emerged other stressful subjects like tribal problems, and border problems. Except this contrast, they have emerged other regional subjects like Pakistani support from Taliban in Afghanistan, wide relations with Saudi Arabia and other negative competitions (in central Asia) of both countries. Not producing a result project of peace pipeline is typically affected by these differences of views. In short, in view of frequency in sources of stress and threat, any prediction in improving relations of both countries faces with difficulty.