Flood Susceptibility Mapping using Ensemble of Evidential Belief (EBF) Function with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Case Study: Jahrom Township)

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic and environmental Consequences. Thus, comprehensive flood management is essential to reduce the flood effects on human lives and livelihoods. The main goal of current study is to investigate the application ensemble of evidential belief function with AHP (EBF-AHP), for flood susceptibility mapping in the Fars Province, Jahrom Township. Nine factors that influence locations of floods were considered in this research and processing in ArcGIS environment. These factors include slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index(SPI), distance to rivers, lithology, land use and rainfall.
The predicted results from the models were validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). From 53 floods identified, 35 locations (≈70 %) were used for the flood susceptibility mapping, while the remaining 16 floods (≈30 %) were used for the model validation. The area under the curve (AUC) for the ensemble of evidential belief function with AHP was calculated as %71.3 and for evidential belief function the AUC were %73.4. The results of this study can be useful for managers, researchers, and planners to Manage the susceptible areas to flood and reduce damages.