Analysis of earthquake risks and damages in rural areas using AHP and GIS techniques (Case study: Rural Abarshiveh Damavand)

Earthquakes of less than 5 Richter magnitudes are not dangerous to buildings and even rural buildings are less impaired in this regard. While earthquakes with a Richter magnitude of between 5 to 6 in rural areas and 6 to 7 in urban areas are very disastrous. Due to the specific situation of Iran from the tectonic viewpoint, it can be argued that all faults are seismically active in the country. So that losses and casualties could be occurred every year specifically in rural areas. Therefore this natural phenomenon happens in Iran and requires preparation for resisting, identifying, and risk management. This research has been done with the aim of investigating the amount of risk and estimation of losses caused by earthquake in rural areas. The role of human factors, geology and geomorphology as effective factor in destruction and losses has also been analyzed. Participants of this study are rural district residents of Abarshiveh, Damavand located in Tehran province. It has 10201 population including 31 residential spots according to 1390 census. The method of research is descriptive analysis which is analyzed and studied using hierarchal model (AHP) as well as geographic information system (GIS). The results of the survey showed that 51.6 percent of the residential spots of the rural district are located within five kilometers from faults, where geologically and geomorphologically have high potential for earthquake. If an earthquake happens, the majority of causalities will be 1037 in day time and 1075 at night time in residential and nonresidential structures. Also 657 of residential and nonresidential structures will be ruined. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of these structures will impose a damage of three hundred billion Rials on the economy of the country.