The Relationship between Overconfidence and Management Profit Forecasts at Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange

Information system reliable, accurate and relevant to the efficiency and development of capital markets is one of the factors that provides timely information system and reduces the reliance of the uncertainty leads to optimal decision. One of the most important information in the capital market is profit forecast by management and one of the factors influencing the earnings forecast is overconfidence of managers. The sample of 127 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2009- 2015 and multivariate regression Eviews and Spss software were examined. The results showed that there is a significant negative relationship between overconfidence and accuracy of management earnings forecast by management and this psychological phenomenon has increased in frequency in the company's earnings forecast. The results also showed that overconfidence causes increasing positive adjusted profit forecast compared to negative adjusted profit forecast. This means that managers who are suffering from over confidence, wiil have more positive adjusted profit forecast.