Assessing impacts of climate change on endangered Kelossia odoratissima Mozaff species distribution using Generalized Additive Model

Climate change can potentially alter some aspects of habitat characteristics of vegetation around the world. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Kelossia odoratissima Mozaff distribution for two time steps (2030 and 2080) using Hadcm3 model A2 scenario in west part of Isfahan. stratified random sampling method was used to collect the presence and absence data of the species form 50 sites. The species occurrence relationships with environmental factors including three physiographic parameters (slope, aspect and elevation) and 19 bioclimatic parameters (average daily temperature, annual precipitation, etc.) were explored using Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and the potential species distribution map was produced using Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the results, the average annual temperature, annual precipitation, elevation and slope were identified as the most important environmental factors influencing the species distribution. The produced model had an acceptable accuracy as its Kappa coefficient and Area Under Curve (AUC) index were 0/97 and 0/98 respectively. Comparing the current distribution of the species with the projected distribution maps of the species under A2 scenarios for the both two time steps indicated that the species distribution will shift to the higher elevation range and its occurrence will be more limited. The shifts in the species distribution are mainly due to the decreasing annual precipitation and increasing the annual average temperature based on the A2 scenario prediction. The findings of this study can be used for conserving and restoring the degraded habitats of this endangered, valuable and medicinal plant species.