Estimating Demand Model for Iran Commercial Vehicles

Vehicle demand forecasting are particularly challenging in Iran because seldom researchers worked on this topic. While most of researchers in Iran studied forecasting models of passenger cars, this paper investigated commercial vehicles which have hardly been addressed in the literature. This paper forecasted demand functions of Iran commercial vehicle in different segments (pickup, transportation vehicles and wide range of truck) via econometrics methods stock adjustment models. Also, since commercial vehicle demand is a derivative one, related variable of each passenger and cargo transportation is considered in the developed model. The results illustrate that in all estimated demand models, price and inventory are seen as effective variables. In bus segment, population is a substitute and effective variable, although service values added as well as cargo are known as effective variables in pickup and truck segments.