Regional scenario planning based on critical uncertainties

In order to prepare for environmental changes, foresight studies have replaced conventional and traditional planning techniques. In contrast to predictions, futures and scenario activities (as one of the most important foresight methods) focus on uncertainties that decision-makers cannot control or reduce. Scenario planning is a technique that provides different perspectives with regard to environmental uncertainties. Scenarios present the future that is likely to occur in the form of stories, provide alternative about future-related situations. In this research, the development scenarios of the Kohgiloyeh and Boyerahmad Province have been addressed. For this purpose, the Delphi method and the expert’s panel as local knowledge have been used to identify the driving forces and future uncertainties. The future development scenarios of the province were developed using the Cross-Impact Matrix and MickMak software. The results show that Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province faces two critical uncertainties of Economic Structure and Fiscal Development. Considering the scenario logics, the province faces four development scenarios in the future.