Climatic zonation and land suitability determination for saffron in Khorasan-Razavi province using data mining algorithms

Yield prediction for agricultural crops plays an important role in export-import planning, purchase guarantees, pricing, secure profits and increasing in agricultural productivity. Crop yield is affected by several parameters especially climate. In this study, the saffron yield in the Khorasan-Razavi province was evaluated by different classification algorithms including artificial neural networks, regression models, local linear trees, decision trees, discriminant analysis, random forest, support vector machine and nearest neighbor analysis. These algorithms analyzed data for 20 years (1989-2009) including 11 climatological parameters. The results showed that a few numbers of climatological parameters affect the saffron yield. The minimum, mean and maximum of temperature, had the highest positive correlations and the relative humidity of 6.5h, sunny hours, relative humidity of 18.5h, evaporation, relative humidity of 12.5h and absolute humidity had the highest negative correlations with saffron cultivation areas, respectively. In addition, in classification of saffron cultivation areas, the discriminant analysis and support vector machine had higher accuracies. The correlation between saffron cultivation area and saffron yield values was relatively high (r=0.38). The nearest neighbor analysis had the best prediction accuracy for classification of cultivation areas. For this algorithm the coefficients of determination were 1 and 0.944 for training and testing stages, respectively. However, the algorithms accuracy for prediction of crop yield from climatological parameters was low (the average coefficients of determination equal to 0.48 and 0.05 for training and testing stages). The best algorithm i.e. nearest neighbor analysis had coefficients of determination equal to 1 and 0.177 for saffron yield prediction. Results showed that, using climatological parameters and data mining algorithms can classify cultivation areas. By this way it is possible to identify areas that have similar climate to prone areas and recognize suitable areas for cultivation.