The Investigation of Uncertainty Emissions Scenarios of Climate Change in Soil Moisture Estimation During the Growing Season of Wheat

Water resources management and planning globally have become a challenging task due to climate change uncertainties. So in the research, the uncertainty of emissions scenarios were investigated in soil moisture estimation during the growing season for wheat in Faroub field of Neyshabour by SWAP model. The Climate data were estimated by ten of AOGCM model and two of emissions scenarios A2 and B for period of future. The Temperature and precipitation data were downscaled by LARS_WG model and was used in SWAP model. The data of soil moisture in depths of 30cm and 60 cm during the growing season of wheat were calculated and compared for periods of baseline and future. The result showed that in the last weeks of growth wheat of Faroub field, the soil moisture for future period was lower than baseline and plant will encounter with the most aridity tension. Also, result of uncertainty bands of emissions scenarios showed that scenario of 2 than B1 have less certainty in estimation of soil moisture for future period during growth weeks.