The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agricultural Systems in the Context of Regional Risk Assessment (Case Study: Lakes Basin Zeribar)

Climate Change and prediction its impacts on Earth’s system is an important issue in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it. In this context, deep uncertainty is key factor in Climate Change studies. In this study we used the regional risk assessment framework (RRA) to integrated assessment of river basin situation considering in deep uncertainties. In this regard, the Zrebar Lake basin selected as a case study for assessment of proposed methodology. The calibrated SWAT model was used for simulation of the Zrebar Lake basin in the base and climate condition. The downscaled outputs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of nine GCM models in three projected periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) entered into the model. After assessing changes in vulnerable factors in Zrebar Lake basin in order to improve the condition of these factors, adaptation strategies were evaluated with regional risk assessment framework. The results show that the mean annual temperature in first projection period 0.3°, in second projection period 0.6° and by the end of the twenty-first century about 1° will increased. Also the mean annual precipitation in three projected periods will increase respectively about 38.5, 66.0 and 87.1 mm. Assessment of climate change impacts on risk receptors show that crop yield and recharge of aquifers faced with greatest damage in climate change. Among the crops, rainfed wheat deal with more damage rather than other crops. The results indicate the need for appropriate infrastructure in order to cope with the effects of climate change.