Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change Impertinence on Agricultural Production and Farmer's Income Situation in Down Lands of Taleghan Dam

Climate change is a phenomenon that effects on the agriculture part through direct and indirect affects i.e. temperature, precipitation changes. Therefore, in this study the effects of climate change prematurity on agricultural production and farmer's income situation at the regional level and in down lands of Taleghan dam was studied. First the behavioral pattern of temperature and precipitation climate variables during 1991-2016 years was investigated. Then by using the econometric methods the effects of above variables on the selected products yield of down lands of Taleghan dam were investigated. Then, by entering the results of regression analysis in the multi-period positive mathematical programming model with approaching the Trendstandel cost function the effects of two degree increase in temperature and fifteen millimeter decrease in rainfall scenario on the agricultural production and farmer's income situation of down lands of Taleghan dam were analyzed. The results showed that the yield of water barley, corn, sugar beet and alfalfa increases 14/9, 19/1, 17/4 and 13/0 percent and the yield of water wheat, tomatoes and canola decreases 21/4, 16/5 and 26/2 percent respectively, after applying the above combination scenarios. Also, the farmer's total gross profit decreases 5/16 percent compared to the base year and arrives from 9208 to 8733 million rials. Finally due to prematurity of climate change in regional planning, to increase agricultural production in down lands of Taleghan dam it was proposed that the first be considered the performance improve operating in per unit area (considering the positive effects of climate change on the yield of selected products) and development the under cultivation of crops such as corn, beet and alfalfa be placed at the next priority.