The Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Changes Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Data in Shandiz City (Between 2000-2015)

The world that we are living in is a world of cities that has unfortunately resulted in the estrangement of the natural environment and unwanted acceptance of imbalances that come from inharmonic relationships of humans and city space (Farid, 1996:8). Moreover, city expansion and manmade applications in nature have caused fundamental modifications in the structure and applications of landscape ecology (Foreman and Gordon, 1986:136). Daily population increase has also resulted in more pressure on the environment and unlimited and unprincipled usage of lands and usage modifications have caused different ecosystem effects (Lu and Weng, 2001). Therefore, failure to locate properly and corresponding to the functional properties of land uses and characteristics of the urban environment studied in each functional scale will be finally resulted in skewed distribution of land uses in the city and heterogeneous and unbalanced spatial structures which in turn will lead to the vulnerabilities in the existing spatial structure (Athari and Najian, 2006: 45). In fact, equitable access to land and efficient use of it is one of the major components of sustainable development (Mehdizadeh, 2000: 7).The city of Shandiz within the last decade has faced significant population growth and physical development. The close distance of Shandiz to the metropolis of Mashhad and its own particular natural conditions have resulted in Shandiz becoming a center for leisure activities for Mashhad residents and its many pilgrims, which in turn has caused major changes in the internal make-up of Shandiz. Since this city is important in respect to tourism, there is a high demand for modifications in land usage and zoning, and to create residential complexes in the form of residential estates and temporary residential complexes; although the placing and designing of those complexes are not based on environmental considerations. Unfortunately, all of these mentioned developments do not consider environmental factors and do not provide adequate infrastructures to services related to them and causes wide spread manipulation of the basic characteristics of the environment of the land and destruction of vegetation and agricultural fields.
In recent decades, rapid changes in land use and land cover in the touristic city of Shandiz, located at west of Mashhad Metropolis, has been accompanied with important consequences such as the destruction of natural resources, environmental pollution and improper growth of the city .
Methods and Material: The purpose of this investigation is the analysis and prediction of land use changes using multi-temporal satellite data for Shandiz (between 2000-2015). In this study, land cover changes in gardens and farms and constructed zones, wastelands and pastures land uses has been investigated using Landsat satellite imagery during the timeline between 2000 -2015 with the use of maximum likelihood algorithm, supervised method and Markov chain model. In Markov chain model, cover classes are used as pawns or chain status (transfer area matrix representing the number of pixels that converts from one class to other classes) or the area that has been changed from any use to other uses between 2000-2015. According to Markov CA model, area prediction for 4 land cover categories of land in the mentioned land uses were determined for the 2021 horizon.

It has been observed in the research findings section that the Amount of gardens and agricultural lands in 2000 at Shandiz was 16.47 %. In 2011, with an area of 13955400 square meters, it has been increased into 24.22 percent. But in 2015, it was significantly reduced into 13.34%.The constructed sites in 2000was 6.08% that has been increased into 10.24 in 2009 and The increase into 25,55 % in 2015 indicating an unconstructive construction at this period of time. Pristine lands in 20000 was 31.08 % that has been increased into 33.31% in 2011 but decreased into 32.18% in 2015. The area of rangelands in 2000 was 46.35 percent, which has been decreased into 32.21 in 2011. However, the significant increase in rangelands was 28.81 percent in 2015 indicating the destruction of the natural ecosystem in Shandiz. Land use areas in the same in 2021 horizon in comparison to 2015.

Depending on output data, it was found that during years 2000, 2009 and 2015, areas of constructed zones and wastelands land uses has increased greatly and whereas that of gardens, farms and pastures has decreased. Land use areas in the same in 2021 horizon in comparison to 2015. Areas of gardens and agriculture lands (%63), constructed zones (%126), wastelands (%97) and pastures (%96) will change accordingly. Will the trend of inappropriate and illegal constructions and encroachments and the destruction of orchards, farms and farmlands continues, more and more changes of land use towards instability of environment and problems in harmonious and sustainable development and negative effect on the quality of life will be observed in this touristic city.