Structural Equation Modeling of the Impact of Agricultural Status on the jointly Utility System before and after Drought on the Rural Population Survival (Case Study: Fasa County)

Considering the importance of natural resources particularly in national lands, some strategies have been considered and used for organizing the various parts of natural resources including its conservation, reclamation, development and use, one of which is the assignment of national lands to Mosha (joint ownership) cooperatives.The Mosha Cooperative System was approved and implemented in 1980 with the aim of optimal use of the factors of production, performing the basic operations, integrated cultivation, increasing the crop yields and farmer's income, improving the farmer's living standards, and preventing the migration of villagers to cities. A large part of Iran's soil is in the arid and semi-arid regions of the world due to geographical conditions. Life in these areas necessarily relies on water and water resources, and the existence of water resources has always played a major role in the formation of human communities. Since the formation of human communities with the agricultural economy and the exploitation of land without water have always been impossible whether in the past or at present, people's livelihood in developing countries like Iran, where a significant part of the lives of a large part of the rural population is dependent on agriculture, is vulnerable to climate changes including drought. A total of 248 Mosha cooperatives were developed in Fasa between 1980 and 2006, which were initially successful due to the potential of the region for agriculture, but the lands assigned to Mosha cooperatives have not recently been used in some villages due to droughts and severe drops of groundwater.
Methods and material: This is a descriptive - analytical research, the data of which were collected using a survey as well as library study, and which has been conducted in 51 villages of the region under study where the project of national land transfer to joint cooperatives had been implemented. The study population includes all of the 248 joint cooperatives existing in the township under study. The sampling was done using complete enumeration method and the representatives of the joint cooperatives were surveyed. The data have been analyzed using the structural equation modeling and the AMOS software..Moreover, content validity has been used to assess the measurement tool, the validity of which was confirmed by some experts in this field. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was also used for testing the internal consistency of the questionnaire. The results showed that all of the components had good reliability, because the alpha value was greater than 0.7 in all of them.

The results of the structural equation modeling about the effect of agricultural status in Mosha cooperatives before and after drought on population survival indicate that agricultural status affects the migration of rural population to cities or their survival in their villages, and drought is one of the factors that determines the agricultural status in Mosha cooperative and acts as an economic factor affecting the survival of the population in rural areas. In developing countries such as Iran, where a significant part of the rural population is dependent on agriculture, people's livelihood is particularly vulnerable to climate changes such as drought. Drought has recently resulted in the reduced air and soil moisture, thirst of the environment, lower crop yields of agricultural lands, lower productivity and product quality, higher food prices and food insecurity, higher unemployment, soil erosion and fragility, and higher levels of the villager's poverty and migration to cities. According to the results obtained In fact, the villager's migration to cities increases after the drought and its consequent unfavorable agricultural conditions in Mosha cooperatives. In fact, before the drought, the agricultural status in Mosha cooperative has had a positive effect on the villager's survival. Considering these results, In fact, the villager's migration to cities increases after the drought and its consequent unfavorable agricultural conditions in Mosha cooperatives.

The data have been analyzed using the structural equation modeling and the AMOS software the regression coefficients obtained in the first model show that the pre-drought effect of the agriculture status in Mosha Cooperatives on the variable population maintenance and migration reduction is 0.487 and its effect on the variable the rural migrant's return from cities is 0.255, both showing a positive and significant effect at the error level of less than 0.05, and the direct and positive effect of agriculture status on the rural population's survival in their villages. However, beta coefficients in the second model for the post-drought effect of agriculture status in the cooperatives on these two variables with the values -0.360 and -0.28 at a level of significance less than 0.05 shows a reverse and significant effect, indicating agricultural stagnation in Mosha Cooperatives and its negative effect on migration. Considering these results, it can be said that drought has led to agricultural stagnation, which in turn has increased the rural-urban migration.