Uncertainty Dilemma in the Crisis Analysis between the United States and North Korea

Contrary to many of the current challenges in the world, the crisis between North Korea and the United States is completely different in the 21th century, and its performance is similar to the Cold War era. Hence, distrust and uncertainty determine the perceptions of the United States and North Korea towards each other. In this context, the United States insists on stopping North Korea from achieving a complete cycle of nuclear deterrent, and defeats the country through multilateral sanctions and military threats. North Korea is also insists on moving towards development of nuclear deterrence and survival, and is willing to make an agreement with regard to security and its interests, at least in the freezing position of the conflict. Meanwhile, a range of issues such as potential threats, different commitments, changes in the priorities of the two countries, domestic policies and trans-regional events, one after another, has only increased the scope of conflict and uncertainty. In this regard, the question is what final conclusion can be perceived for this dispute in view of uncertainties about true intentions of North Korea, and on the other hand, the United States under Trump administration ? The present article seeks to consider the dimensions and consequences of the crisis between the two countries in a descriptive-analytical way by using the Bayesian theory and military scenarios.