A Disaster Facilities Location-Allocation Model Considering Reliability under Uncertainty and Dynamic Demand (Case Study: Earthquake Disaster in Tehran)

Needs of affected people for relief commodities in the natural disasters often make crisis worse. Therefore location of distribution of depots and setup these depots wherever accelerate fast distribution have a special importance. In this paper a location-allocation model of distribution facilities with the objective of minimizing the costs has been proposed. So that this model under uncertainty allocates the established depots to affected areas under different scenarios considering dynamic demand in which over the first 72 hours after the beginning of the crisis. Also two kinds of reliable and unreliable depots and backup depots with the possibility of damage to facilities and routs has been considered to increase the reliability. The proposed model has been applied on a case study the earthquake in Tehran city. Then we have solved the problem for a different number of facilities and performed a sensitivity analysis and validation process. Also the demand for relief has been forecasted for the year 1398 with the ARMA method and the results have been reported. Computational results show that location of distribution depots and allocation of the areas according to the proposed modelcan improve the aid and help managers to manage the crisis.