The risk of landslide susceptibility zoning conditional probability model ( Baye's theorem ) , Case Study : GARADAGH ( Arasbaran , frome Garasou to Daredies )

Massive movements, especially landslides, are one of the most important natural disasters. Landslides endanger people's lives with environmental degradation, their resources and assets.
Existence of factors such as prerequisites for roughness, uncontrolled exploitation of forests, non-observance of technical principles for the construction and maintenance of forest and rural roads, lack of proper management and unconditional exploitation of existing resources have exacerbated it. Landslides cause significant damage financially and morally compared to natural hazards such as volcanoes and floods (GOSTI 2005: 408). The landslide every year causes many deaths and injuries in many parts of the world (Abedini et al., 2013), which necessitates the attention to this dangerous phenomenon. The research area in the area of about 9000 square kilometers of the Azerbaijani desert along the east and west to the north of the Aras and the west of the valley of Diz and its east is Qarshou and in the south of Ahar, and from Kasba to the Dare Dize valley along the northwestern slopes of the southern Karnatagh is.