Estimated Demand for Medical services Case Study of Shiraz and Arsanjan Cities Generalized Logit and ANN Method

The doctor is a health care provider which is depreciated due to, work, accidents, environmental pollution and age and increases the demand for health services; many factors have an impact on the demand for health services; this study attempts to measure the impact of 18 of the most important ones.
The model used is the Generalized Logit and ANN. The population includes those who referred to Shiraz and Arsanjan hospitals in 1994. The sample consists of 100 patients and 100 patient patients (non-patient) and data Collected through questionnaires.
Findings: The results of model validity tests including fit of Goodness (Pearson and Deviance index), Parallel Regression, Maximum likelihood, and Newton-Raphson Algorithm indicate that the validity of the model is up to 84% confidence. According to the results, increase of 1% in visit, 2% of demand for services is reduced. The initial health and beliefs has the same interpretation of visit. An increase of one percent in premiums caused a decrease of 3.11% and increases one unit in health index, decrease of 1.3% and a one year increase in age, increase of 10%, and daily consumption of one cigarette, increases 0.04% in demand Health care.
According to the results, health, insurance, education and awareness of body anatomy have the greatest impact and smoking and job have the least impact on the demand for health care. With increasing age, education, insurance coverage, awareness and income, the demand for treatment increases. On the other hand, over time, education, awareness and per capita income are rising, so, the demand for these services will increase in the future.