Scenario Writing of the Future of the Marine Industry Organization

The high-ranking officials and managers of each organization try to provide the realization of the organization's goals and its growth by adopting appropriate measures. In this regard and in time, various methods have been devised and used, but with the increasing
complexity and environmental changes, as well as lack of the possibility of exact prediction of the future, a new field called "scenario writing" has been created whose main purpose is to create the possibility of managing uncertainty ahead of the organization. This article is aimed at identifying marine industry scenarios in order to provide a basis for its growth in the long run. For this reason, the "Global Business Network" research method has been employed. In order to implement this method, first of all, the most important propulsion forces that affect the future of the organization were investigated through studying the previous research and obtaining the views of the experts. Then, the most important uncertainties and key factors shaping the future of the organization were identified in a 15- year horizon. These factors are the most important variables affecting the organization's future. In the next step, while outlining the framework for the future of the organization, the scenarios preceding it were titled "Sea Chicken, Dolphin in the Cage, Fishworm, Aground whale". The most important finding of this research is the future scenarios of the organization, which according to the logic of scenario writing, the story (narrative) of each of them is presented in this
article. Each of these stories illustrates the probable situations of the future that have been explained and described by writers of scenarios as a praiseworthy future. Also, at the end of the research, indicators for the realization of each scenario have been mentioned.