Forecasts and analysis of light and heavy frosts occurrence in Ardabil Province using outputs of LARS-WG Downscaling in the coming decades

In this research, Forecasts and analysis of light and heavy frosts occurrence in Ardabil Province using outputs of LARS-WG Downscaling in the coming decades will be discussed. The Inputs data of models used in this study included the variables of rain, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and radiation in the daily scale. In this study, using the output of BCM2 & HADCM3 climate models under scenario A1B, the beginning and end of the light and heavy frosts in three periods during 2011-2030, 2065-2046 and 2099-2080 were examined and finally, zoning maps of the start and end dates of heavy and light frosts were constructed. The results showed that frost is short from the beginning to the end of light and heavy frosts. The beginning of light frosts at all stations had been delayed and this delay is more in Khalkhal and Meshkin-Shahr. From the start view of heavy frosts, Khalkhal and Parsabad stations show the greatest delays. Khalkhal and Meshkin-Shahr stations are associated with more changes of dates the end of the light frosts rather than two other stations which explains the decrease during the frost period in two stations. Khalkhal and Parsabad stations show the largest decline of the occurrence of heavy frosts in the coming decades that reflects the warmer climate conditions in recent and the future decades.