Analysis of future sustainable development governance institutional obstacles of Tehran metropolis

Considering the pivotal importance of Tehran metropolis as capital of Iran, researchers have always criticized inadequate practices adopted for the management and governance of the capital. In all its various fields, management conducted by various institutions has led to disruption, lack of coordination and other problems in the status of this metropolis. For the future of Tehran’s metropolis, it will be difficult to move out of all these complexities and obstacles. Talking about the future requires a comprehensive and holistic approach, because governance structure in Tehran metropolis is hugely complicated with regard to all its various dimensions – economic, political, social and environmental – and interference on the part of numerous institutions and agents with diverse interests at different levels – spatial and functional, among others. Along with rapid unpredictable developments in the contemporary world, this complex situation makes it extremely difficult to make a decision about the future of governance in Tehran metropolis. Using a futuristic approach, the present study aims to identify and discuss the most challenging barriers affecting the future of Tehran metropolis. The present study is an exploratory analysis conducted via descriptive and analytical procedures. After studying the theoretical literature and explaining the theoretical framework, we conducted document reviews and content analyses in order to identify governance obstacles in Tehran metropolis. We used the Real Time Delphi (RTD) method to complete the list of barriers to the sustainable development of Tehran metropolis. Afterward, in order to identify the key barriers and conduct a systematic analysis of the barriers, we used the Cross Impact Balance Analysis process with the aim of investigating the relationships between the factors and the effects of the factors on one another, which is a method known as structural analysis in the literature on futures studies. Structural analysis is used to identify key variables (explicit or implicit) by collecting feedback from experts and stakeholders about the complex and unpredictable aspects of a system. This method is applicable for the qualitative analysis of highly variable systems. We used the Micmac software product for conducting a structural analysis. The results of this study indicate that, despite the emphasis in numerous articles (See Table in the Appendix) on the existence of functional divergence as the main obstacle to the governance of Tehran metropolis for achieving an appropriate management system and sustainable development (Akhundi and Dejgar, 2007; Kazemian and Mirabedini, 2011; Azizi et al, 2012; Sayami and Vakili, 2015; and Basirat et al, 2012), this factor was not listed among the 12 main factors based on the Cross Impact Balance Analysis process. The results of the relationship analysis show that functional divergence in its various dimensions is influenced by two factors: “the effect of government and government institutions on the legitimacy of Tehran metropolis’ management structure” and “a legal weakness in providing a clear definition of the relationships between institutions,” which highlights the importance of legal and political dimensions and the resulting issues. The main issue is that the change of either of these two essential factors is not in the legal sphere of the municipality. Higher levels of decision-making on the national level and, to a lesser extent, on the regional level, will have the power to make changes in these factors. Therefore, in order to achieve reforms and change the current situation, changes must be made to factors that can be modified as fast as possible and that can help overcome as many barriers as possible (factors in the two-part region of the graph). Based on the results, the key barriers to the governance and sustainable development of Tehran metropolis in the future can be divided into two categories. The first category includes factors that are relevant to the municipality, the city council and a set of urban management institutions in the metropolitan area and which can be corrected and eliminated through the current structure of Tehran metropolis. These factors include: 1. Lack of a shared vision and consensus among metropolitan agents, 2. Lack of expertise or not using expert workforce in appropriate organizational post, 3- A compartmental attitude and lack of a systemic attitude to the management of Tehran metropolis and 4. Lack of coherence in management and decision-making within the municipality. The second category of factors require macro-level changes and cannot be modified by Tehran municipality itself. In addition, considering the current situation, no major changes are possible. These factors include: 1. a highly politicized city council and urban management system, 2.The domination of government and government institutions over stakeholders and the public and 3. The effect of government and government institutions on the legitimacy of Tehran metropolis’ management structure.