Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Thermal Stratification of Latian Reservoir

In this study, effects of climate change on thermal stratification of Latian Reservoir in the period of 2020-2039 have been evaluated and the water temperature in the reservoir has been simulated during this period. For this purpose, temperature data, precipitation, wind speed and dew point for two general circulation models include MIROC-ESM and EC-EARTH under RCP8.5 scenario were used. The results of two models showed that the air temperature in the upcoming period in the scenario RCP8.5, increases 0.31 degree , mean annual precipitation decreases about 8.6 percent and runoff info the dam increases about 3 percent compared to the baseline period. The simulation results by two-dimensional model of CE-QUAL-W2 showed that under the impact of climate change in the period of 2020-2039, thermal stratification period increases for 28 days and depth of the thermocline is decreased. Also, the mean value of temperature in epilimnion will increase 0.140C and in inhypolimnion will decrease 0.080C. The obtained results can be applied for more effective water quality management of reservoir under the climate change effects.