Estimating urban employment rate in land-use development scenarios using Regression model (Case study: KianPars and KianAbad neighborhoods of Ahwaz)

Urban areas as the milestones of human societies are the engines of economic growth and social development, which ultimately lead to physical and land use changes in the cities. On the other hand, occurred changes in medical, commercial, administrative and educational land use play an effective role in job creation. A study on the relationship between these changes and employment rates along with a scenario design is an important step towards more accurate urban planning. The purpose of this study was to estimate the urban employment rates resulted from land use development in Kianpars and Kianabad neighborhoods of Ahvaz city using linear regression model. To achieve the mentioned purpose, two scenarios were considered: first scenario deals with land use development based on current trend and second scenario discusses land use development management for a decade starting from 2016 to 2026. Based on aim, the research is an applied study following a descriptive-analytical method. A documentary method is used for collecting information about theoretical foundations, and linear regression and ArcGIS software are used to analyze the data. The results indicate that all areas of the Kianpars neighborhood will grow according to the first scenario in the horizon of the plan in 2016, but in the second scenario regions 22 and 35 experience non kind of growth, and regions 24 and 29 had negative growth (2%). In the neighborhood of Kianabad, regions 40, 48 and 50 will have no growths in both scenarios. In total, it can be said that one of the main causes of employment changes in the studied neighborhoods is the increase or decrease of employment-creator land uses such as medical, commercial, educational, and administrative in the studied scenarios. However, due to the evident role of land-use changes in employment-creation, enough attention should be paid to urban land-use management of areas with high levels of employment in Comprehensive and Detailed urban plans. High concentration of these types of land-uses plays an important role in attracting the population that consequently increase traffic jam; air, sound and visual pollutions. Kianpars neighborhood is a real example of such situation.