Evaluation of change detection and future condition of meadow-land ecosystem of Shahrekord using Landsat data

Wetland meadows as a natural ecosystems plays an important role on sustainability of nature, although are enormously under drainage and changing in the recent years. Shahrekord meadow, which is located adjacent to the city, considered as a natural heritage due to its contribution to tourist visiting, balancing weather in addition to supplying forage for animals. However, this meadow is declining due to anthropogenic effects that this article aims at studying and evaluation of its change and prediction of future condition using Landsat TM5, ETM+7 and OLI/TIRS. To do so, first of all the images of 1987, 1994, 2001, 2010 and 2016 were gathered, then radiometric and geometrically were evaluated. After that, landuse/landcover of the study area was depicted using a maximum likelihood method in TerrSet (Ver. 18.31). Afterward, change detection of the study area was done using a cross-tabulation method and the future condition was predicted using a CA-Markov model. Results indicated that a significant change was occurred in this study area whereas in 1987 whole of the study area was covered by meadowland but land cover changes altered this valuable ecosystem to constructed area (3.33%), arable land (25.02%) and airport (19.65%) in 2016. Results of change prediction also depicted that 5.08% of the study area will be converted to other land cover in 2026. Therefore, we recommend that land use and land cover of this valuable ecosystem should be conserved due to the function and services that this meadowland offered.