Study on Possibility of Scenario Building for Crisis Management in Tehran (Case Study: Earthquake)

Earthquake is among natural disasters faced by humans, and Iran is among countries which are especially prone to such disasters. With regard to high frequency of earthquakes in Iran, more attention should be given to earthquake crisis management in Iran, especially in Tehran, which enjoys high strategic significance as the capital city of Iran and is seriously susceptible to quakes. Building scenarios is a tool for strategic planning when faced with future uncertainties and has been in focus for a few decades. Therefore, given the inefficiencies of crisis management in Tehran, it is suggested to adopt the scenario building approach to reduce the impact of Tehran's earthquake. In this study, data has been collected by interviewing 10 scientific and executive elites, and theme analysis has been applied to analyze data. Finally, five important themes including the necessity of scenario building, barriers, challenges facing scenario building, the best solution to provide the ground for scenario building, requirements of scenario building as well the consequences of the scenario building have been identified. Study of these themes shows that development of an integrated system with the goal of supporting scenario building, documentation, information sharing, coordinating organizations, and emphasis on expertise, are major steps which should be taken to improve crisis management. In addition, further studies are needed to prepare the necessary infrastructures of earthquake crisis management across Iran and Tehran