The analysis of the nature of Bet doubts And modeling the return in Forex financial markets

This article first analyzes the nature and legitimacy of the online Forex FX market transactions and then models the excessive return on Libor in this market. For this purpose, first, in the context of the Islamic thoughts, and using the concepts of game theory, it describes the bet transaction as a zero sum game, which always has a kind of principle or mechanism for the win and lose, And along with the collateral, the winner's reward or outcome can be certain or indeterminate. It is then claimed that an illusory transaction in this virtual financial market based on an advantage instrument and an automatic trade with the provision of the three top criteria can be regarded as a transaction from the perspective of the Islamic economy. Further, considering the Libor rate (LIBOR) as an indicator for the return on risk-free assets, we first attempt to develop a theoretical model for the likelihood of a surplus return on Libor in the FX Internet financial market at various leverage levels. Finally, based on the data on the exchange of two currency pairs of dollars / euros and dollars / pounds over a chosen period, it is shown that the likelihood of a yield equivalent to the Libor rate on the exchanges of this Internet financial market at high leverage levels despite the adoption of risk The exchanges are negligible. Accordingly, the participation of Iranian users in this market is both non-economic and exposed to the bet doubts.