The Achievement of Sustainable Transport Future Using Scenario Planning (Case Study: Urban Transportation of Hamedan)

Long-term planning requires the use of new approaches, such as future studies, to be able to withstand future uncertainties. Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertain. The objective of this paper is “prioritize transport strategies based on robust criteria on the 20-years horizon” using “Global Business Network”. Statistical population is of 30 experts in the field of urban affairs which were selected by snowball sampling method. Data gathering tool was documentation study, literature review, panel and questionnaire. Validity of the questionnaire assessed using the judgment of experts and the Cronbach's alpha was used for validation. Two driving forces included “government support for private sector” and ”society merits” were identified as main driving forces shaping transport futures of Hamedan and four scenarios included “green transportation”, “dependence to private cars”, “chaos”, "strict controls" based on two factor were developed. A fuzzy logic approach was used to identify robust strategies. Two strategies included “promotion of culture and traffic behavior and increase participation of citizens in transportation” and “parking management and organize parking space” were identified as robust strategies which have acceptable performance regardless will happen in future. Finally, in order to achieve two robust strategies, proposals were presented.