Earthquake risk assessment in northwestern Tehran using Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP), case study: 22nd District
Message:
Abstract:
Back ground and objective: The 22nd district of Tehran in northwestern is subjected to earthquakes risk; a population more than 128000 people, crossing the north fault from its north area and also recent development and constructions, especially tall buildings, increase the risk. The objective of this study is to assess the physical vulnerability of the 9 main criteria along with its sub-criteria in the region, and then estimate the population of the region, and finally analyze the risks in the region according to the global risk assessment formula (risk × vulnerability × population) (UNISDR, 2009).
Method
In this study the AHP hierarchical model have used to prepare the earthquake risk map, and also a questionnaire have made in order to use urban planners, structure engineers and seismologists point of views, and Expert choice software is also used measure the final weights of criteria and sub criteria. Then, by using the available pre-prepared earthquake risk analysis (PGA) map (by Dr. Mehdi Zare) ,preparing a population density map and an earthquake hazard map for the study area, and multiplying them to the physical vulnerability map in GIS software, the earthquake risk for Tehran’s northwest district (district No. 22) was measured.
Findings: The study shows that the highest vulnerability and risk of earthquake hazards are in the east and northeast of the region, which are older than the other parts of the region and are located in the fault zone, and then some parts of the north and the townships in the west and south of the region are among the most dangerous.
Conclusion
Considering the vulnerability and risk and the population in this area indicates that the risk of earthquake is consistent with the demographic in the region, and the risk decrease in areas with lower population density. Therefore, controlling population and constructions in the region has high credibility in reducing risk
Article Type:
Research/Original Article
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Disaster Prevention and Management Knowledge, Volume:8 Issue:4, 2019
Pages:
373 - 386
magiran.com/p1908191  
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