Land Use Change Trend Consideration in Lahijan City and Predicting its Future Change with LCM Model

Updated land use change information is one of the necessary requirements for natural resource management. This research used LCM mol to tect and predict land use changes in Lahijan city in Guilan province during 1984-2020. Initially, Landsat satellite images of 1984, 2000, and 2016 were categorized into five classes of forest, rangeland, agriculture, human ma areas and water resources. Then elevation, slope, precipitation, distance from resintial areas, distance from agricultural lands, distance from rangeland, distance from forest margin and distance from roads were used as affecting factors on land use changes. Mol accuracy assessment was done by comparison of actual and predicted map of 2016. Accuracy assessment of prediction mol was done by comparison of actual and predicted maps of 2016. The values of Null success, Hits, Misses and False Alarms were 88.04, 2.65, 8.45 and 4.28%, respectively. Meanwhile, in the present study, the error of the prediction mol was about 12.6%, which confirmed the efficiency and ability of the mol. Results from 1984 to 2016 indicated that a significant area of forest cover was creased and the forestation will continue according to these observations. Regarding the process of forestation in the study area, the implementation of land use planning to reduce the negative effects of land use change is proposed.